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At first, Trump gave the impression to embrace a firm position concerning the Ukrainian conflict. After making threats of "significant consequences" in August if Vladimir Putin continued blocking truce discussions, the former president eventually enacted major penalties on Russia's biggest energy firms, Lukoil and Rosneft. This move seriously hindered Putin's capability to fund his war effort in Ukraine.

Yet, through his recently unveiled detailed peace proposal for the conflict, reportedly drafted by US and Russian officials without Ukrainian or EU involvement, the former president has clearly returned to his Russia-friendly stance.

Favoring Military Action

This proposal would effectively favor Putin for attacking a sovereign nation while placing the country's political freedom in danger. Despite strong proclamations that "The nation's independence will be affirmed", large portions of the proposal in reality weaken that same sovereignty. Seen as a Russian ideal would likely be a Ukrainian nightmare.

Showing his business experience, the former president seems to treat the situation in Ukraine as a basic land disagreement, implying giving Putin a portion of Ukrainian land will appease the president. However, Putin's invasion is not simply about dominating a damaged swath of economically weakened territory in the Donbas region. Rather, it is about the nation's political system – and Putin's apparent goal to eliminate it so it stops acts as an appealing model for the Russia's population of the democratic governance that Putin's growing autocracy prevents them.

Territorial Giveaways

Although maintaining in status the currently divided Ukrainian provinces of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, Trump's plan would require Ukraine to surrender the entire Donetsk region. Beyond favoring Russia with territory that its troops have been unsuccessful to capture in more than a ten years of warfare, this giveaway would leave Ukraine's defenses severely compromised.

The area is the site of Ukraine's much-vaunted "defensive line", the well-established military defenses that are a key obstacle to Russian advances. Trump would have Ukraine surrender these defenses, providing Putin a unobstructed path to the capital if he eventually decide to resume the war.

Military Limitations

Then, in a move that would enable additional fighting more feasible for the Russian military, Trump would require the nation to diminish the numbers of its military from their current 800,000 to 850,000 personnel to a maximum of 600,000. Importantly, the initiative sets no similar limits on Russia's military.

Apparently as a gesture to Putin's efforts to depict Ukraine's legitimate administration as extremists, Trump's plan asserts: "Any Nazi doctrine and actions must be condemned and banned." Seemingly to highlight this element, it insists that "The nation will hold political contests in three months" of a ceasefire agreement. At the same time, the proposal places no requirement that Putin risk his authoritarian rule by conducting elections in Russia.

Defense Guarantees

To be sure, the initiative makes Russia promise not to "attack other states" and to "enshrine in regulation its stance of non-aggression towards European nations and Ukraine". But considering that Putin has broken equivalent accords in the previous instances – such as the 1994 agreement, in which Russia committed to respect the nation's borders in exchange for surrendering its historical nuclear arsenal, and the previous peace deals, in which Russia committed to a truce and a return of occupied areas in the region to Ukrainian control – why should we have confidence in Russia now?

For this reason the Ukrainian government has been so insistent on external defense commitments. Although the plan promises a "immediate joint military response" if the Russian Federation restart its invasion, and includes that "The nation will receive reliable defense commitments", the details include unclear to alarming. The initiative would not just prevent the nation accession to NATO but also preclude Nato members from stationing forces on Ukrainian territory, effectively precluding the security presence, reportedly commanded by the UK and France, on which Ukraine had been relying to stop Putin from replenishing his diminished troops, restocking, and resuming aggression.

World Response

An additional supplementary accord according to sources would offer the nation with a alliance-like security guarantee, in which any future "major, deliberate, and sustained armed attack" by the Russian Federation on the country "shall be regarded as an attack threatening the tranquility of the allied countries." This implies a armed reaction. Yet unlike a capable Ukraine's armed forces – the nation's best defense against future invasion – the credibility of the side agreement would hinge on the dedication of Western powers, including the US administration, to respond militarily to Putin's hostilities, something they have {not