From Grudging Respect to Unease: Russia Weighs Up the Ousting of Maduro.

A unexpected operation on the capital in the dead of night, ending with the capture of the country's president. By the next morning, the foreign force announces its plan to rule indefinitely.

That is precisely how Russia's president imagined his large-scale offensive of Ukraine playing out in February 2022. In reality, it was Donald Trump who pulled it off in Venezuela, in a move widely condemned by many, whisking away the Kremlin's historic ally Nicolás Maduro, who now faces trial in New York.

Public Fury, Private Calculations

In public, Russian officials have reacted with anger, denouncing the operation as a blatant breach of international law and a worrying development. Yet beyond the rhetoric, there is a feeling of reluctant admiration – and even jealousy – at the efficiency of a power grab that Russia once imagined, but failed to execute due to a series of intelligence blunders and Ukraine's strong resistance.

“The operation was carried out with precision,” noted the pro-Kremlin Telegram channel a popular military blog. “In all probability, this is precisely the way our 'special military operation' was meant to proceed: swift, decisive and decisive. It’s hard to believe [Valery] Gerasimov planned to be engaged in combat for this long.”

These observations have fed a mood of introspection among hardline commentators, with some publicly wondering how Russia's promised blitzkrieg in Ukraine turned into a protracted and deadly conflict.

Olga Uskova, said she felt “embarrassment” on behalf of her country given how brazen the American action appeared to be. “In the space of a day, the US detained Venezuela's leader and seemingly wrapped up his own 'special military operation,’” she stated.

A Network Unravels

For more than two decades, Venezuela sought to cultivate a network of anti-American allies – from Moscow and Beijing to Havana and Tehran – in the hope of helping to shape a new axis able to challenge Washington.

Yet despite Russia's foreign minister vowing backing for the Caracas government as recently as late December, hardly any experts ever believed Moscow would come to his rescue.

Mired in Ukraine, Russia has, recently, seen other important partners fall from power or deteriorate significantly – from Bashar al-Assad to an ever-more fragile Iran – exposing the constraints of the Kremlin's global influence.

“For Russia, the circumstances are profoundly awkward,” said Fyodor Lukyanov. “Venezuela is a close partner and ideological ally, and Maduro and Putin have long-term relations, leaving Moscow with no option but to express outrage. But offering any tangible support to a country so far away is simply impossible – for practical and operational reasons.”

Focus on the Main Front

Analysts point to a more practical calculation. The Kremlin's main focus, analysts say, is Ukraine – and maintaining a good relationship with Trump on that front far outweighs the destiny of Caracas.

“Putin and Trump are presently engaged with a much more significant issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's goodwill towards Caracas, it is unlikely to upend a much larger strategic game with a vital counterpart over what it sees as a lesser priority,” the analyst concluded.

Concrete Losses and Emerging Risks

Still, Russia's diminished role in Venezuela carries multiple concrete consequences for Moscow. If a pro-American administration were to emerge in Caracas, US defense specialists could examine large parts of the Venezuelan military's equipment, including advanced Russian-made systems.

Those include S-300VM anti-aircraft systems sent over a decade ago, as well as an unknown quantity of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems transferred in late 2025.

Moscow has also extended billions of dollars to Venezuela, much of which it is now unlikely ever to be recovered.

A more pressing concern for Moscow, however, is oil: American control over Venezuela's enormous oilfields could push global prices lower, endangering one of Russia's most important sources of income.

“If our American 'partners' gain access to Venezuela’s oilfields, over 50% of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote Oleg Deripaska. “And it appears their plan will be to ensure that the price of our oil does not rise above $50 a barrel.”

A Bleak Silver Lining?

Still, some in Moscow see room for a bleak kind of optimism. Trump's kidnapping of Maduro, they argue, could deal a final blow to the rules-based international order and usher in a more openly power-based world order – one where might, rather than law, determines results.

“The US administration is tough and cynical in pursuing its national interests,” wrote Dmitry Medvedev with endorsement. “Ousting Maduro had nothing to do with drugs – only oil, and they freely acknowledge it. The principle of might makes right is evidently more powerful than ordinary justice.”