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Usually, the National Football League's Coach of the Year honor adheres to a simple pattern. It commonly functions as a type of apology. Our apologies we misjudged your franchise in our pre-campaign predictions.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut path: the skipper who engineered the most dramatic turnaround wins the award. In reality, it sparks an annual discussion about expectations and whether we're truly honoring superior coaching or simply the most shocking shock.

Yet this year's race is distinctly different. The group of candidates is remarkably talented. It has been the season of resurgences. The league has been unpredictable, with reigning division winners declining and longtime strugglers improving in unison. During an normal season, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the overwhelming favorite. But in this chaotic and entertaining year, he's competing with multiple other exceptional coaches.

Below is how the projected ballot should look.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters love signal-callers. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. If you fix a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. In the right environment, Williams has been given the chance to showcase his special ability. Since Week 9, the Bears rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's sustained performance. With Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, far less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the gameplan rather than freelancing. It is an offense designed entirely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball run game, a consistent dose of play-action and a imaginative passing attack that frees wide receiver targets all over the field. Williams has thrived. And when clear throws weren't available, he's been capable to conjure big plays from nothing.

The coach came to the Bears with a clear offensive blueprint. Virtually every bet – rebuilding the trenches, highlighting the tight ends, turning the QB into a timing-based thrower – has worked. This is rare for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who walked into the organization with the kind of pressure he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the top name on the head coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive dork but the type of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

In a ordinary year, Johnson would be the overwhelming favorite. But the current isn't a typical campaign!

The area where Johnson's case comes a bit into trouble is on defense. The Bears presently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on takeaways, and turnovers are famously fickle. Coaches can focus on creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is legitimate. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defensive work. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the team would be several victories behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is established for long-term winning. However Johnson falls just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable situation to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has orchestrated a rapid turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around football of his career. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defense that now ranks number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more notably, he has mastered the leadership stuff, which was not a given following his initial public appearances and some of his offseason moves.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed their staff with the ideal staff mix of youth and experience, Coen bet on first-timers. From the leader on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That kind of approach is intriguing in theory, but frequently collapses in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is learning a new job on the fly. But he has pulled everyone and everything into sync.

After an initial strong beginning, there was a chance that the campaign would veer off the track. A mid-year collapse caused the Jags wobbling again. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. Coen did not. Rather, he simplified things. The offense stopped chasing home-run answers and started seeking sustainable ones. Coen recentered the attack around key players and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. Coen receives the slightest deduction in the rankings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year argument has a defining moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a new quarterback and partnering him with an new play-caller might have ended the campaign in October. Instead, it defined it. By the middle point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has fallen away after that time, slipping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, placing him just a single spot ahead of peers.

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